For many Americans, it just wouldn't be the holiday season without green bean casserole, fresh cranberry relish, mashed potatoes and candied yams.
From Thanksgiving to Hannukah to Kwanzaa, fresh produce plays a key role in consumers' family meals and celebrations — and shoppers are willing to pay more to keep their favorites on the holiday table.
“Today, produce inflation is very mild,” said Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics and author of “What's New 2024: A Consumer Look at Produce Innovation,” a study by the Southeast Produce Council. “In fact, prices are down year over year for many commodities. But consumers don't measure from month to month or year to year; to them, it's the cumulative impact of all the price increases in life.”
The SEPC survey asked more than 1,600 consumers to rank purchase attributes when buying fresh produce. Thirty-two percent cited price as their top consideration, followed by nutrition and taste. However, 38% of participants said they are willing to pay extra when it's a special occasion or holiday, and 36% said they will pay more for produce when entertaining.
“Holidays are deeply rooted in tradition, and for many a consumer that means family recipes are followed to a T,” Roerink said. “Every holiday has its own unique powerhouse sellers that tend to do well regardless of inflation or deflation, simply because it's a recipe must-have. The fourth quarter counts big sales spikes for many commodities, such as cranberries, celery, yams and more.”
The season's big sellers
Shoppers tend to buy certain fruits and vegetables exclusively around the holidays. In the SEPC study, the most-cited examples included pineapples, sweetpotatoes and yams, pumpkins, collard greens, and cranberries.
“This leads to a few opportunities for the produce industry,” Roerink said. One is to lean into existing habits and optimize sales via marketing and merchandising for those who already buy those items. Another, she added, is to draw additional shoppers into these culinary traditions to try and grow household penetration.
Many holiday season staples saw gains in 2023's fourth quarter compared to the same period the previous year. Circana OmniMarket Integrated Fresh data for the 13 weeks ending Dec. 31 shows that sweetpotatoes and yams increased 6% in dollars and grew 4% in volume. Beans gained nearly 1% in dollar sales and 4% in volume, and celery increased 1% in dollar sales. Performance for pumpkins was mixed; dollar sales increased 3% and volume sales declined by nearly the same amount.
Fresh herbs saw solid growth, increasing 10% in overall dollar sales. Rosemary showed the category's most impressive gains, up 22% in dollar sales and 27% in volume. Thyme, chives and parsley all saw double-digit increases in dollars as well as growth in volume sales. Thanksgiving-friendly sage gained 7% in dollars and 4% in volume.
Citrus, typically a big seller during the winter holiday season, increased 7% in dollar sales and 5% in volume sales. Mandarins were the top seller among citrus by both dollar and volume sales, increasing 9% and 5% respectively. Tangerines spiked 52% in dollar sales and 19% in volume.
Some holiday favorites saw declines, however. Potatoes dipped 3% in dollars and remained flat by volume. Likewise, fresh cranberries declined 5% in dollar sales while volume sales remained flat.
Vegetable party trays experienced flat dollar sales and a 2% increase in volume, while fruit party trays dipped 2% in dollars and 6% in volume sales. Those combining vegetables and fruit dropped 13% in dollar sales and 20% in volume. However, the game changed when retailers included cheese on fruit platters; dollar sales jumped 19% and volume sales spiked 23%.
Retailer strategies
Produce retailers highlight a variety of commodities in their holiday season promotions and merchandising.
José Ortega, produce specialist at FoodMaxx in Oakland, Calif., stresses the importance of neighborhood demographics. Many of the warehouse-style grocery chain's stores are in areas with large Latin American and African populations, he said, and holiday food traditions vary.
“The No. 1 sellers are definitely going to be your romas,” he said, noting that tomatoes are a key ingredient in many holiday dishes. “They're an essential throughout all ethnic groups. I'm Mexican-American, and I've noticed that a lot of Ethiopian Africans use the same type of roma that we use for sauces, salsas and roasting.”
Collard greens and cilantro also see higher sales volumes during the holiday season, he added.
While customers will buy ingredients for traditional holiday recipes regardless of price, Ortega said, he sometimes discounts items if he notices a lull in sales.
“I'll see where our competition is at, and if we have something at $1.38 a pound and they have it for 99 cents a pound and I'm trying to make a bigger margin from it, I'll bring the price down,” he said. That way, he added, sales will increase for that item and shoppers can spend the savings on other items.
Marc Goldman, produce director at Morton Williams Supermarkets in the New York metropolitan area, said sweetpotatoes, yams, mushrooms and green beans are the top-selling produce commodities during the holiday season. Last year, stores sold more packaged green beans than bulk beans.
“I think that changed during [the pandemic],” he said. “People liked more packaged items instead of people putting their hands all over everything. It's better for us, too, because packaged green beans tend to hold up a lot longer and stay fresh.”
With Morton Williams markets located in Manhattan — where space is limited, Goldman said — large displays are tough to pull off. Instead, he promotes holiday-friendly produce in store ads and groups together appropriate items in stores.
For Giant Food, citrus, berries, potatoes, onions and cooking vegetables are all staples in the Landover, Md.-based retailer's holiday merchandising and promotional strategies.
“How we feature the flavors of the season is represented both on display and in our communication channels, whether that be print, digital, or social,” said Chris Keetch, director of produce and floral.
Vegetables such as celery, potatoes, sweetpotatoes, green beans and onions are a major focus for Thanksgiving, said Jeff Cady, vice president of produce and floral at Northeast Shared Services — a Schenectady, N.Y.-based subsidiary of Northeast Grocery, the parent company of Tops Friendly Markets and Price Chopper/Market 32.
“While fruit generally takes a back seat, we still go after the first-of-the-season California mandarins and fresh apples,” he said. “And we can't forget the cranberries.”
Because Christmas and New Year's Eve are more focused on parties and entertaining, Cady said, stores promote dipping vegetables and cut fruit.
Smart merchandising
The SEPC survey found that consumers respond positively to holiday produce displays; 38% of participants said they are “very interested” in such displays, and 49% reported being “somewhat interested.”
When merchandising fresh produce for the holidays, Joseph Bunting, director of produce for The United Family — the Lubbock, Texas-based grocery chain that includes the United Supermarkets, Amigos, Albertsons, Market Street, and United Express banners — offers key items on large displays, with sell-along items tied in.
“A good example would be marshmallows and pie crusts tied into sweetpotato displays,” Bunting said. “This makes it easy for guests to shop our stores and provides a solution in one convenient location.”
At Sprouts Farmers Market, potatoes, squash, green beans and Brussels sprouts play a key role during the holidays.
“We let the freshness and vibrance of the product drive our merchandising,” said Sonya Constable, vice president of produce for the Phoenix-based retailer and Produce Market Guide's 2024 Produce Retailer of the Year.
Creative displays are another great way to get shoppers' attention during the busy holiday season.
Brian Dey, senior merchandiser and natural stores coordinator at Four Seasons Produce in Ephrata, Penn., started a trend with the broccoli Christmas tree, which is made from strategically stacked heads of broccoli.
“Super simple to build, these trees are 100% shoppable. They oftentimes create impulse sales, and 100% of the time they create an atmosphere of produce theater,” he said. “What started out as only one tree in this area in 2019 has basically turned into a forest now.”
Dey is also a fan of citrus displays to brighten up the produce aisle and large displays of pears that alternate between green and red varieties for a Christmas color scheme.
“Fun displays can and will move the needle with sales, but the intangible here is that it creates memories a consumer will appreciate,” he said. “Creativity creates opportunity
His top tip for retailers is to make sure holiday produce staples — both vegetables and fruits — are covered for Thanksgiving and Christmas.
“Having the right items on hand will reduce stress for the consumer who is already pressed for time,” Dey said. Along with items like potatoes, green beans and onions, he recommends featuring commodities such as pomegranates, persimmons, pears and quince.
One of the biggest mistakes retailers make, Dey said, is a lack of planning for the holiday season.
“Planning for all facets of holiday selling, [including] labor scheduling, ordering, promotional opportunities and merchandising, is super key to executing a successful holiday sales plan,” he said. “Plan, do some more planning and then continue to plan after that.”
Larger cranberry crop on the way
Retailers can expect a plentiful cranberry crop for 2024, according to the latest forecast from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. The agency estimates this year's national crop at 8.24 million barrels (one barrel is equal to 100 pounds), which is an increase of 2% from last year.
For Wisconsin — the largest cranberry producing state in the U.S., responsible for growing more than 60% of the nation's supply — growers are expecting a 4.9-million-barrel crop. The next-largest grower, Massachusetts, anticipates a crop of 2.2 million barrels, up 12% from 2023.
Among other large cranberry-growing states, USDA projects 580,000 barrels for New Jersey and 560,000 barrels for Oregon.
With a plentiful crop on the horizon, retailers can maximize sales of the bright red fruit by showcasing cranberries in their holiday displays, running promotions, offering recipes and preparation tips in stores and on their websites, and by featuring them in holiday ads and on social media platforms. To create a convenient shopping experience for customers, cross-merchandise cranberries with other Thanksgiving items such as turkey, stuffing ingredients and pie crusts.
The Cranberry Institute offers recipes for appetizers, soups, side dishes and desserts, as well as information about the health benefits of cranberries, at cranberryinstitute.org. The associated US Cranberries site, uscranberries.com, also provides resources for in-store promotions and promotional messaging. For example, retailers can capitalize on the “Friendsgiving” trend by running a cranberry-focused recipe or photo contest on social media.
Holiday demand for pumpkins continues as yields decline
Pumpkins are a must-have holiday item for many consumers, starting in the fall with the approach of Halloween and continuing through Thanksgiving. Nearly 99% of pumpkin sales take place during a nine-week period, giving retailers a short window in which to promote and sell the colorful gourds.
“Sales are extremely seasonal and go from literally a few hundred bucks per week for most of the year to peaking at $600,000 per week during the two weeks leading up to Halloween,” said Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics. “The season starts to gear up as early as the first full week of September, when back-to-school displays make room for Halloween candy, baked goods and merchandise.”
Meanwhile, pumpkin yields have declined. According to data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2023 production totaled 16 million hundredweight, down 8% from 2022. The planted area for pumpkins totaled 69,100 acres, down 7% from the previous year, and the area harvested declined 10%.
The crop value also decreased 18% over the previous season. The agency cited drought conditions in some growing regions as the main reason behind the drop in crop size.
While pumpkins are grown throughout the country, the top five producing states in order of highest production are Illinois, Indiana, California, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In 2023, Illinois growers reported their highest yields in five years. However, some farmers in states such as Texas, New Mexico and Colorado saw yields reduced by as much as 20% due to drought and extreme heat.