Some may think of citrus fruit as strictly a winter crop, yet summer varieties are increasingly appearing on consumers' radar — and in their shopping carts.
Circana OmniMarket Integrated Fresh data for the 13 weeks ending October 8, 2023 — including the months of July and August — show that dollar sales for fresh citrus increased 4.8% during the same period the previous year. Likewise, volume sales grew 7.4%.
The top-selling citrus categories by total dollar sales during that 13-week period included mandarins, lemons and oranges. Varieties seeing the largest year-over-year dollar sales growth were golden nugget mandarins, seedless lemons, midknight valencia oranges, melogold grapefruit, pixie tangerines and kinnow tangerines.
“Citrus is an important part of the consumers' shopping basket throughout the summer, and it is when valencia oranges are at their peak,” said Cassie Howard, senior director of category management and marketing for Sunkist Growers in Valencia, Calif. She added that while imported citrus is available in the summer, “Valencia oranges are uniquely the only California-grown orange variety available to shoppers during the summer-month window.”
The annual crop of valencia oranges from California is expected to see a slight decline this year. In its March 2023-24 report, the California Department of Food and Agriculture predicted a yield of 16 million cartons, compared to an estimated 16.2 million the previous year. The report noted that the southern and central regions of California received significantly more rain than usual during winter and spring, leading to flooding in some groves.
The California Department of Food and Agriculture's survey data indicated an average fruit-set per tree of 529, which is a 14% decrease from the previous year and 7% below the five-year average. However, sizing is expected to be a bit larger; the average March 1 diameter was 2.4 inches, up 2% from the previous year.
The March 2024 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service crop production report estimated that domestic producers will grow 2.7 million tons of oranges in 2023-24, which is an 11% increase from final production in the 2022-23 season. Grapefruit production is expected to reach 340,000 tons, up 4% from 2022-23. USDA predicted a 25% decrease in lemon production and a 7% dip for tangerines.
(Photo: aamulya, Adobe Stock)
Growing season challenges
Casey Creamer, president and CEO of Exeter-based California Citrus Mutual, noted that despite some challenges the outlook is good for summer citrus.
“I would say it's gone fairly well,” he said. “We're excited about the quality of this year's crop and excited about the market opportunities.”
Unprecedented rainfall last year disrupted the typical timing of citrus thrips in orchards and led to difficult conditions in the field. Some growers reported exterior fruit scarring on as much as 80% of the fruit on individual blocks, primarily affecting the appearance of navel oranges.
Creamer said the impacts will carry over to the summer crop, though he is not yet sure of the extent.
“We think it's not any worse than what we experienced in the navels,” he said, “but it is going to be a little bit of an issue.”
In terms of sizing, Creamer predicts that summer citrus will progress similarly to the navel crop, which saw some growers picking early to get smaller sizes off the trees.
“As the season went along, we saw some increases in the size structure, so our group is anticipating the same with the water availability and the rains that we've had this year,” he said.
The summer harvest began around mid-April and will continue through the end of September or early October.
California wasn't the only region to experience challenges for the summer citrus crop. In Mexico, growers faced extreme heat and drought conditions in its lime orchards.
“There hasn't been enough rain in the whole area,” said Diego Morales, sales manager at D Produce Co. in Coral Gables, Fla., which offers limes and key limes from across the Gulf of Mexico region. “For the summer, we expect to be heavy on small sizes, basically due to all the heat waves that we had. And we see more heat waves coming.”
Although the smaller limes will likely be good for bag sales, he said, the fruit may have issues with dryness. Volume will also be lower than anticipated.
“We were expecting a big crop for the summer, but then the temperatures were so high that a lot of the flowers and the little fruit aborted,” Morales said. As a result, he now estimates a normal-size volume.
On the upside, he predicts that pricing will be stable this summer.
“We do see the prices becoming more and more steady. That helps a lot with consumption,” Morales said. “Overall, I don't think we're going to see very low market for the summer program, and we're not going to see very high markets, either. That helps a lot for planning and increasing the demand.”
Export outlook
As California's summer export program ramps up for the season, Creamer said he is optimistic about the prospects.
“We think with the lower supplies and lower exports that have happened with our navel crop this year, it will open the door for valencia exports,” he said.
Exports have been down for the last several years, he added, due to trade issues, the COVID-19 pandemic and widespread transportation challenges.
In past years, he said, exports accounted for roughly 30% of California citrus sales. However, the latest trade reports from the U.S. trade representative's office estimate that exports are currently on target for 20%.
“We're hopeful that now that most of those [transportation and trade] issues are behind us, that we'll be able to recapture some of that export market. But right now, I think it's too early to tell,” Creamer said. “We're excited about the upcoming season. We've got great export-quality fruit, and we're hoping to maximize that channel.”
In a study commissioned by Sunkist Growers, consumers said recipe inspiration and utilization tips were key factors incentivizing direct citrus purchases, said Cassie Howard, senior director of category management and marketing for Sunkist. (Photo courtesy of Sunkist Growers)
Summer offerings
In addition to valencia oranges, California growers will offer lemons from various districts this summer.
“We'll have some lemons down in the Ventura area,” Creamer said. “[Our manager of grower services] was down there last week looking at the crop, and it looks pretty good and ready to go.”
Bee Sweet Citrus in Fowler, Calif., will pick late navel varieties through June. Its Central Valley grapefruit harvest is now underway and will continue into August. The grower will also have valencia oranges and District 2 (central coast) lemons available through the summer.
“The valencia and grapefruit crops are down compared to '23, with larger sizes,” said Randy Stucky, director of harvesting and grower relations for Bee Sweet Citrus. “The [District 2] lemons look to have a good early summer crop and a lighter late summer harvest.”
Sunkist, which grows citrus throughout California and Arizona, expects to offer a consistent supply of valencia oranges, lemons and grapefruit in the summer months.
“Valencias and California star ruby grapefruit entered the arena in late March and will be available through the summer months,” Howard said. “The valencia crop will be similar overall compared to last year, and both varieties look to have nice quality and balanced size structures coming into the season.”
Sunkist offers lemons year-round, and its summer program will have a steady supply all season. Howard said she has seen an increase in retail demand for lemons as consumers look for ways to make hydration more exciting.
“An article in The New York Times on food trends for 2024 discussed consumers' focus on hydration,” she said. “Consumers are looking for ways to increase water consumption, and they are doing so by boosting water flavor. Lemons are a natural fit, with our research showing that two-thirds of lemon shoppers use lemons to flavor their water.”
This presents opportunities for retailers.
“Adding secondary displays of lemons in your water aisle can help boost consumer engagement with this trend,” she said. “Summer is when lemons are top of mind for shoppers, and it is when we see the highest household penetration for lemons.”
This season, Sunkist will expand its offerings to include multiple bag options.
“We have seen added interest in the 3-pound and 5-pound bags, increasing volume sales this season versus last year while not negatively impacting bulk lemon volume,” Howard said. “Sunkist's 5-pound lemon bag is a terrific way for retailers to give their consumers the value they are looking for when making lemonade or baking, while not impacting sales in other SKUs.”
Partnering with retailers
Morales of D Produce Co. is looking ahead to summer lime promotions, and says he plans to work with retailers on advertising.
“Usually, the first ads are on Cinco de Mayo,” he said. “It's usually a big pull for limes.”
D Produce Co. will also promote limes on Instagram, Facebook and TikTok.
“We do drone videos and videos of the packinghouses,” Morales said. “Basically, we're trying to catch attention.”
At Sunkist, Howard has multiple plans to work with retailers on summer promotions, from providing category insights and customizable marketing support to creating variety-specific bag and bulk programs to suit individual retailers' needs.
“A recent Sunkist-commissioned study revealed that when consumers were asked what advertisements incentivized direct citrus purchases, recipe inspiration and utilization tips were at the top of their lists,” Howard said.
In response, Sunkist's merchandising program features interactive POS materials with scannable QR codes that provide real-time recipe inspiration to shoppers in stores. The program is supported by geo-fenced social media content to prompt consumer purchases at checkout.
“This summer, we are supporting our retail customers with Sunkist grapefruit sampling at several locations throughout the country,” Howard said.
The company is also running a display contest for retailers through July, with prizes for the top three stores.
