Inflation ticks slightly higher in November

Year-over-year overall U.S. inflation checked in at 2.7% in November, slightly higher than the 2.6% pace reported in October, according to the Dec. 11 consumer prices report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The grocery food index rose 1.6% over the last 12 months, while the BLS said the restaurant food index rose 3.6% over the last year. The index for limited-service restaurant meals increased 3.7% over the last 12 months, and the index for full-service restaurant meals rose 3.6% over the same period.

The report said the grocery price index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs rose 3.8% over the last 12 months and the index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 2.8%. Over the same period, the fruits and vegetables index rose 1.1% and the other food at home index increased 0.7%, according to BLS data. The index for dairy and related products increased 1.2% over the year. In contrast, the cereals and bakery products index declined 0.5% over the last year, the largest 12-month decline since December 2017.

“Today's CPI numbers show that inflation is a stubborn thing, and the U.S. still has some work to do to fully tame it,” Andy Harig, FMI — The Food Industry Association vice president for tax, trade,sustainability and policy development, said in a statement. “Food-at-home remains well below the Fed's overall 2% target, coming in at 1.6% on a year-over-year basis.”

Harig said the slight tick upward to 0.5% in the monthly figure for grocery prices bears watching.

“Increases in the price of eggs (8.2%) — driven by avian influenza — and the price of beef (3.1%) — driven by high input costs — both point to challenges the food and agriculture supply chain are working to address,” he said. “But November's numbers continue to demonstrate that, for consumers looking for affordability, eating at home is still the best bet.”

Harig said 85% of grocery shoppers report that they have at least some control over their grocery expenses.

“To support shoppers as they plan their holiday meals, the food industry is committed to providing value to customers through discounts and sales, private brand and local product offerings as well as the deployment of new technologies to enhance the shopping experience,” he said.