Food price inflation expected to remain low in 2025, USDA says

Grocery prices are expected to increase only 1.2% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025, according to the latest USDA Food Price Outlook.

The late August report incorporates the latest Consumer Price Index and updated USDA projections.

In 2024, the USDA said prices for all food are predicted to increase by 2.3%, with a prediction interval of 1.7% to 2.8%.

Food-at-home (grocery) prices are predicted to increase by 1.2% in 2024, with a prediction interval of 0.4% to 2%. The USDA said food-away-from-home (restaurant) prices are predicted to increase by 4.1% for all of 2024, with a prediction interval of 3.8% to 4.5%.

In 2025, food prices are expected to increase more slowly than the historical average rate of growth. The USDA said 2025 prices for all food are predicted to increase by 2%, with a prediction interval from down 3.2% to up 7.5%. Grocery prices are predicted to increase by 1.1%, with a prediction interval from down 6.6% to up 9.4%. The USDA said restaurant prices are predicted to increase by 3.1%, with a prediction interval from 0.3% to up 5.9%.

In 2023, the USDA said grocery prices rose 5%, compared with 11.4% in 2022. Restaurant prices climbed 7.1% in 2023, compared with an increase of 7.7% in 2022.