Whether it’s chicken wings (up 7%) or vegetables for the snack tray (broccoli is down 7%), Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute Economist Dr. Michael Swanson says consumers shouldn’t expect every snack food category to increase their budget for a traditional Super Bowl party. And he doesn’t think President Trump’s latest trade talks with Mexico, Canada and China will have a direct, immediate effect at the grocery store by Sunday’s big game.
“It’s unlikely that changes in tariffs will impact prices headed into the Super Bowl, however, we’ll see how it plays out in the coming weeks. This is certainly the year for consumers to stay food fluent,” Swanson says.
For the past four years, he’s led the team at Wells Fargo to look at popular categories for game day watch parties and analyze the pricing trends. His research aims to help consumers stay “food fluent” to find alternatives, substitutions and bargains when they can.
“We started in 2021 when we saw the first spike in food inflation. And the past three years, everything has been up—it was a question of how much a category was up that year,” Swanson says. “But for 2025, some categories are up, and some are not. Some are way up; and some are way down.”
Swanson says it’s demand keeping prices elevated—not supply.
For dairy products, the Super Bowl is one of the top three demand events.
“Between the nachos, pizzas and sundry cheese-based snacks, the industry knows that and prepares well in advance making sure all the fans have what they need,” he says. “Dairy as a category was up 1.3% from a year ago, but it has been a relatively flat pricing environment for the last 18 months. Consumers and producers have found a good balance overall.
Specific to ongoing trade developments and tariffs discussions, Swanson says the dairy industry is staying keenly aware.
“Exports are a key element for balancing U.S. dairy production and demand. The industry is preparing to see what happens with key markets like Mexico and Canada in the near term,” he says.
He says the same could play out for avocados, which is notable given the tariff discussions on Mexico—our No. 1 source country for avocados.
“The question is, is the supply substitutable. With avocados, we’re seeing a push to grow more in Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia,” he says.
While longer-term supplies may be diversified, it takes years for trees to bear fruit. And for now, per the Wells Fargo Super Bowl Report, avocado prices are up over 11%.
Two other vegetables up year-over-year are red bell peppers (up 7.4%) and prepared carrots (up 3.4%)
So what categories went down in year-to-year pricing?
Notably, some vegetables are down including celery (down 8.4), broccoli (down 7.2%) and cauliflower (down 3.8%).
A more robust supply of potatoes has yielded a decline in potato chips prices, which are 5.1% lower. Also when it comes to overall pre-packaged foods, the container prices have come down, so increases in transport costs aren’t being passed along to the consumer as they have been in the past.
If you’re looking for a “bargain” Swanson points to store brand frozen pizzas.
“Some of those carbohydrate-based components are down through competition. Something like frozen pizzas, for example are down from a year ago. And especially you look at those store Brand pizzas are way down. They're down about 8% versus just 2% for the national brand. So if you really want to save money, competition is your friend.”
As for protein, the biggest price decline has been in shrimp with a 4% lower price this year than last.
Retail beef prices remain elevated.
“It's not that we have poor supply of beef. We're doing some interesting dynamics right now, exporting a little bit less, importing, a little bit more, putting more pounds on those cows,” Swanson says. “We have a decent supply of beef, but the price is still up 3.5% to 4% as a category from a year ago. The consumers love it, and they're going to pay for it.”
His advice overall in this food economic environment is to stay a smart shopper.
“We're entering a competitive situation right now–we're seeing things go up and things go down. If a product matters to you, get out the on the web, shop a couple of stores, because one of the things we do find is promotions are back in the game.”
by Margy Eckelkamp, Feb 03, 2025