November U.S. e-grocery sales up 18% over year ago

The U.S. online grocery market ended November 2024 with $9.6 billion in monthly sales, a 17.8% increase over last year as all three fulfillment methods posted year-over-year sales gains, according to the Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopper Survey fielded Nov. 29-30.

The uptick in sales was predominantly powered by strong expansion of the monthly active user base, as order frequency rates inched up and overall spending per order remained unchanged versus last year, according to a news release.

The overall monthly-active-user base, which includes households that used any of the three fulfillment methods during November, surged 15%, the second-strongest year-over-year percentage change since August 2021, the release said. The new record of 77.8 million households that bought groceries online in November 2024 broke the previous record high set during April 2020, the first full month of the pandemic.

During November, 72% of overall MAUs used only one fulfillment method, up more than 400 basis points versus 2023, the release said.

Delivery sales jumped to $3.9 billion, up 22% compared to a year ago, accounting for 40.6% of all e-grocery sales, according to the survey. An 8% increase in the MAU base and higher order activity led to the surge in sales, while the average order value remained flat versus last year, the release said.

Delivery results for November extend the segment’s strong growth trend that began in June 2024, fueled by the ongoing waves of deep-discounted offers on membership and subscription programs from various retailers and providers, which first started appearing in May, the company said.

Pickup posted $3.9 billion in sales, an 8% year-over-year increase, ending the month with 41.3% of total e-grocery sales. A 9% expansion of pickup’s MAU base drove order volume gains despite a slight contraction in order frequency, the release said, which added that average order value fell by about 4.5% compared to 2023 due mainly to a pullback among the youngest household group (18-29-year-olds).

Ship-to-home continued to reclaim lost share after bottoming out during 2022, as sales jumped to $1.7 billion in November, up more than 30% year over year to end the month with 18.1% of online sales. The MAU base for ship-to-home expanded at the fastest rate of all three fulfillment methods in November, increasing more than 11%.

A slight increase in order frequency, combined with the rapid MAU growth, aided in generating a strong surge in order volume, and the nearly 12% lift in AOV suggests that other factors, like product mix, may have played a role in November’s results, the release said.

“Supermarkets experienced a significant surge in their MAU base, benefiting from widespread and deep discounts on membership and subscription programs offered by both national and regional grocers throughout November,” said David Bishop, partner for Brick Meets Click. “And, while that’s a positive sign for supermarkets, the race to retain customers and grow share-of-wallet with them is only intensifying among rivals.”

In contrast, the MAU base for mass expanded by less than 1% as it lapped an extremely strong user growth in 2023, and it maintains the largest share of MAUs across the formats. The release said mass reported strong gains in order frequency as its MAUs (including all three methods) completed 9% more orders than last year. However, the combined AOV for delivery and pickup for mass did slide slightly in November while its AOV for ship-to-home posted double-digit gains.

Customer satisfaction with e-grocery services climbed in November as the overall repeat intent rate reached 65.2%, the highest score in the last four years and the third-highest since the onset of COVID in March 2020. The gain was driven largely by a more than 5-percentage-point increase in the share of MAUs who have completed four or more orders with a specific service within the last three months, the release said. More than 80% of this user group indicated that they are very/extremely likely to reuse the same service within the next month compared to under 30% in the first-time user group.

In terms of customer loyalty, supermarkets made gains with the households that rely on them as their primary grocery store. Nearly 56% of those households that were active online in November also ordered online from their primary store, almost a 7-percentage-point gain versus last year. Despite the gains for supermarkets, households that rely on a mass retailer as their primary grocery store are at least 30% more likely to order groceries online from mass compared to supermarkets, the release said.

"Driving larger orders and fostering repeat purchases requires creating a more personalized and seamless online grocery shopping experience," said Mark Fairhurst, chief growth officer for Mercatus. "By offering tailored product recommendations based on customer preferences and lifestyles, alongside easy-to-use rewards programs and intuitive navigation, grocers can strengthen customer loyalty, build trust and sustain long-term growth in the online grocery space."

For more information about November 2024 results, view the latest Brick Meets Click e-grocery Dashboard or visit the e-grocery Monthly Sales report page.