January e-grocery sales jump 17%

The U.S. online grocery market finished January 2025 with $10 billion in monthly sales, a 16.6% increase over January 2024 as all three fulfillment methods posted year-over-year sales gains, according to the Brick Meets Click Grocery Shopper Survey fielded Jan. 30-31, sponsored by Mercatus.

January marked the sixth consecutive month of e-grocery sales above $9.5 billion, fueled in large part by the broad and deep discounts on membership and/or subscription programs, according to a news release.

Delivery’s year-over-year growth in January accelerated even faster than the prior month, surging approximately 37% to $4.1 billion, as it continued to benefit from the various promotional discounts on memberships and subscriptions that have continued since mid-2024. Delivery posted an exceptionally strong expansion in its monthly active user base, strong gains in order frequency and a nominal increase in average order values. This momentum helped delivery capture 610 basis points of sales share versus a year ago, to finish January with 41% e-grocery sales, the release said.

“It’s important to call out that much of delivery’s explosive growth is driven by mass and specifically Walmart,” said David Bishop, partner for Brick Meets Click. “The ongoing waves of promotional tactics are having the intended positive impact on frequency and spend, and they are also increasing retention and share of wallet, which will make growth for their rivals more challenging going forward.”

Pickup’s positive year-over-year growth was muted compared to delivery’s surge. Pickup sales climbed 4% versus last year to $4.2 billion, driven entirely by stronger average order value, which offset a contracted monthly-active-user base and a drop in order frequency. The headwinds facing pickup are due largely to the impact of the promotional efforts that are driving demand towards delivery, the release said. This has led pickup to cede 500 basis points of sales share on a year-over-year basis to end January with 42% of e-grocery sales, just slightly ahead of delivery.

Ship-to-home sales jumped 9% in January compared to last year to $1.6 billion. Strong expansion of its monthly-active-user base and increased order frequency fueled the gains despite a year-over-year decline in average order value, the release said. Ship-to-home continues to benefit to some degree from a suboptimal in-store shopping experience related to certain general merchandise and health and beauty care products being locked up to prevent theft. However, like pickup, ship-to-home’s lagging rate of growth versus delivery caused it to lose 110 basis points of sales share compared to last year, ending January with 16% of all e-grocery sales.

Grocery operators, which include both supermarkets and hard discounters, continue to face stiff competition from mass rivals and specifically Walmart as it leverages delivery and its Walmart+ membership program to gain market share, the release said. In terms of household monthly penetration, the mass format has consistently served approximately half of all the monthly active users during each January since 2022, whereas supermarkets have served one third of monthly active users and hard discount under 5% of monthly active users.

Given that customers’ experiences and expectations continue to evolve, it’s important to understand cross-shopping and repeat intent trends in relation to each other, the release said. For cross-shopping, one-third of grocery’s monthly-active-user base also completed an order with a mass retailer sometime during January 2025, although this rate slipped 50 basis points compared to the prior year.

When it comes to the likelihood of reusing the same service within the next 30 days, grocery closed its gap with mass in January 2025 as grocery’s repeat intent climbed 600 basis points year over year while the rate for mass remained unchanged versus last year. Grocery’s overall repeat intent gains were driven by improvements related to pickup orders as the mass format continues to maintain its lead for delivery orders, the relaese said.

“Delivery’s impressive growth has been driven by membership promotions, but shoppers can easily shift platforms depending on which factor matters most to them — price, product or convenience,” said Mark Fairhurst, chief growth marketing officer for Mercatus. “Grocers that prioritize seamless experiences, deliver personalized offers, provide exceptional service and implement compelling loyalty strategies will be best positioned for sustainable, long-term growth.”

While monthly e-grocery sales climbed significantly during January 2025, up 16.6% year over year, overall grocery spending climbed just 2.5% versus last year. As a result, e-grocery ’s share of total grocery sales rose to 15% for January, up 180 bps compared to a year ago.

For more information about January 2025 results, check out the latest Brick Meets Click e-grocery Dashboard or visit the e-grocery Monthly Sales report page for information about subscribing to the full monthly report.